Discussion
Which consequence does downstream development have for predictability?
Answer: A
Errors in a data-sparse region travel downstream at the group velocity, faster than the systems themselves, contaminating forecasts far from their origin within a day or two. This is one reason global observational coverage matters for regional forecasting. Confinement of errors is exactly what does not happen, and skill declines rather than improves with lead time. Naming the cost of a choice alongside its benefit is what turns a fact into a design decision.
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