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Which consequence of nonlinearity limits weather forecasting?

  • A.Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
  • B.The equations cannot be integrated numerically without introducing errors that grow without bound
  • C.Energy is not conserved
  • D.The solutions become discontinuous after a finite time so that no smooth forecast field can exist

Answer: A

Nonlinear interaction transfers error from small scales to large, so a small initial uncertainty grows until the forecast is no better than climatology, which Lorenz established and which sets a practical limit of about two weeks. Numerical integration is entirely possible and energy is conserved by well constructed schemes. The predictability limit is a property of the physics rather than of the numerical method, which is why ensemble forecasting rather than better arithmetic is the response.

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