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Which term describes the warming still to come from past emissions?

  • A.Radiative forcing
  • B.Equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is the eventual warming resulting from a sustained doubling of the gas
  • C.Committed warming
  • D.Transient climate response, which is the warming observed at the time of doubling in a gradual increase scenario

Answer: C

Because the ocean has not yet equilibrated with the existing forcing, some further warming is already committed even if concentrations were held constant from today. The transient response and the equilibrium sensitivity are related but distinct measures of how much warming a given forcing produces. Distinguishing the three quantities carefully is essential when reading assessment reports. A single measurement chosen to respond to the one asymmetry beats several that respond to shared behaviour.

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