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Which measurement constrains the current planetary energy imbalance?

  • A.Satellite measurements of the top of atmosphere radiation balance, which are accurate enough to give it directly
  • B.Surface temperature records
  • C.Measurements of the concentration of carbon dioxide, from which the imbalance may be computed theoretically
  • D.Ocean heat content observations

Answer: D

The imbalance is under one watt per square metre against fluxes of 240, which is beyond the absolute accuracy of satellite radiometry, so it is inferred from the rate at which the ocean is warming. The Argo float array made that measurement possible. Satellite data constrain the variability of the imbalance well even though they cannot give its absolute value. A single measurement chosen to respond to the one asymmetry beats several that respond to shared behaviour.

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