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How many people must there be in a room before there is a 50% chance that two of them were born on the same day of the year ?

  • A.At least 23
  • B.At least 183
  • C.At least 366
  • D.At least 730

Answer: A

At least 23 people are needed for a better than 50% chance that two of them share a birthday, the birthday paradox. The probability that all of n people have different birthdays is \(\frac{365 \times 364 \times \cdots \times (365-n+1)}{365^{n}}\), which drops below 0.5 at n = 23.

The number 183 is about half of 365 and is the answer to a different question, how many people are needed for a 50% chance that one of them shares your own birthday. The numbers 366 and 730 relate to the pigeonhole principle, which guarantees a match but not at the 50% level.

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