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Which difficulty do blocking events pose for forecasting?

  • A.They occur only in the southern hemisphere where observational coverage has always been comparatively poor
  • B.Their onset and decay are poorly predicted
  • C.They cannot be represented in a numerical model because their scale exceeds the size of the domain used
  • D.They move too rapidly

Answer: B

Blocks are persistent once established, which helps the forecast, but the transitions into and out of a blocked state remain among the least predictable events in mid-latitude meteorology. Models represent them but often with systematic errors in frequency and duration. They are essentially stationary rather than fast moving and occur in both hemispheres, being particularly common over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The shared properties explain why these belong to one family, and the differences explain why more than one exists.

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