Discussion
Which effect does repeated independent evidence have on the odds?
Answer: C
Independent observations contribute independent likelihood ratios, and the posterior odds are the prior odds times their product, which is why a sequence of weak clues can amount to strong evidence. Averaging, reversion to the prior and replacement all describe update rules that violate the axioms. Seeing the accumulation as a product also explains why an assumption of independence that is false leads to overconfidence so quickly.
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