Suppose
\[ \underset{\sim}{X}_{3 \times 1} = \begin{pmatrix} X_{1} \\ X_{2} \\ X_{3} \end{pmatrix} \text{ Multivariate} \]
\[ \text{Normal}_{3}\left(\begin{bmatrix} 1 \\ 0 \\ 3 \end{bmatrix}, \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 1 & 0.5 \\ 1 & 4 & 1 \\ 0.5 & 1 & 1 \end{bmatrix}\right). \]
Hence the probability distribution of \(\begin{pmatrix} X_{1} \\ X_{2} \end{pmatrix}\) given \(X_{3} = 2\).
MH SET - 2025, SET Exam - 2025,
Answer: C
The conditional distribution is \(\text{Normal}_{2}\Bigg(\begin{bmatrix} 0.5 \\ -1 \end{bmatrix},\) \(\begin{bmatrix} 1.75 & 0.5 \\ 0.5 & 3 \end{bmatrix}\Bigg)\).
Partition with \(\Sigma_{12,3} = (0.5, 1)'\) and \(\sigma_{33} = 1\). The conditional mean is
\[ \begin{bmatrix} 1 \\ 0 \end{bmatrix} + \begin{bmatrix} 0.5 \\ 1 \end{bmatrix}(2 - 3) = \begin{bmatrix} 0.5 \\ -1 \end{bmatrix} \]
and the conditional covariance is
\[ \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 1 \\ 1 & 4 \end{bmatrix} - \begin{bmatrix} 0.25 & 0.5 \\ 0.5 & 1 \end{bmatrix} = \begin{bmatrix} 1.75 & 0.5 \\ 0.5 & 3 \end{bmatrix} \]
Option B has the right covariance but adds the correction to the mean instead of subtracting it. Option A has a covariance matrix that was not reduced. The distribution is determined, so D is wrong.
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