Discussion
Which meteorological input dominates the uncertainty in such a forecast?
Answer: D
Errors in wind direction translate directly into errors in the position of the plume, and because the wind varies with height an error in the plume altitude compounds the problem. This is why ash forecasts are issued as probability fields rather than as single trajectories. Temperature and humidity matter for the plume rise and for wet removal but contribute far less to the positional uncertainty. Checking the units of each quantity catches a wrong formula before the arithmetic begins.
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