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Which growth rate does the model predict?

  • A.An e-folding time of about one hour, which matches the development of an individual convective storm
  • B.An e-folding time of one week
  • C.A rate independent of the shear, determined instead by the Coriolis parameter and the stability alone
  • D.An e-folding time of about one day

Answer: D

The maximum growth rate is proportional to the shear divided by the buoyancy frequency, giving an e-folding time close to 24 hours for typical values. That matches the observed pace at which a cyclone develops from a barely visible wave into a mature system over two or three days. A shear-independent growth rate would contradict the strong observed dependence of cyclogenesis on the strength of the baroclinic zone. Working one numerical case through both cases side by side fixes the distinction better than any rule of thumb.

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