Discussion
A model forecasts a cyclone deepening 30 hectopascals in 24 hours at 55 degrees north.
How should this be described?
Answer: D
The Sanders and Gyakum criterion scales the 24 hectopascal threshold by the sine of the latitude relative to 60 degrees, giving about 21 hectopascals at 55 degrees, which the forecast exceeds. Such rates are well documented over the western oceans. Latent heat contributes but dry dynamics alone can produce very rapid deepening in a sufficiently baroclinic environment. Working one numerical case through both cases side by side fixes the distinction better than any rule of thumb.
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