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Which forecast range benefits most from stratospheric information?

  • A.Several years ahead, on the timescale over which the ocean circulation evolves and can be predicted
  • B.Two to six weeks ahead
  • C.The first twelve hours, during which the initial state of the troposphere still dominates the forecast
  • D.One to three days

Answer: B

Tropospheric memory is lost after about a week, but a stratospheric anomaly persists and influences the surface for several weeks, adding skill in exactly the range where deterministic forecasting has failed. This is now exploited operationally. Short range forecasts depend on the tropospheric initial state, and multi-year prediction depends on the ocean.

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