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Which method addresses the resulting forecast uncertainty?

  • A.Running the model from an analysis valid several hours earlier so that the errors have time to disperse
  • B.Ensemble forecasting
  • C.Increasing the horizontal resolution of the model until the errors fall below the level of significance
  • D.Longer time steps

Answer: B

Running many forecasts from slightly perturbed initial states samples the growth of uncertainty and yields a probability distribution rather than a single answer. This is the operational response to the chaotic error growth that Lorenz identified. Higher resolution improves detail but does not remove initial condition uncertainty, and the other options address nothing. Checking the units of each quantity catches a wrong formula before the arithmetic begins.

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