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Discussion

Match each observed change with its measured direction.
List I
A. Global mean surface temperature
B. Arctic sea ice extent in September
C. Global mean sea level
D. Ocean heat content
List II
1. risen by around twenty centimetres over the last century
2. risen by about one degree since pre-industrial times
3. increased steadily through the recent decades
4. declined markedly over the satellite era

  • A.A-2, B-4, C-1, D-3
  • B.A-4, B-2, C-1, D-3
  • C.A-2, B-4, C-3, D-1
  • D.A-3, B-1, C-4, D-2

Answer: A

Each is an independent line of evidence and they are mutually consistent, which is what makes the overall picture robust. Ocean heat content is the least noisy of the four. The four lines agree with one another. Consistency is what makes the picture robust.

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