Discussion
Consider the following statements about climate extremes.
1. Heat extremes have become more frequent as the mean has risen.
2. Heavy rainfall events have intensified in many regions.
3. A rise in the mean cannot change the frequency of extremes.
Answer: A
The first two are correct. The third is plainly wrong, since shifting a distribution moves far more of it past a fixed threshold than the shift in the mean itself suggests. Tails move more than means do. Thresholds sit far out in the distribution. Small shifts move a great deal of the tail. The mean shift understates the change in extremes.
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