Discussion
Assertion (A): A modest rise in mean temperature can produce a large rise in the frequency of extreme heat.
Reason (R): The threshold defining an extreme lies in the tail of the distribution, where a small shift changes the area greatly.
Answer: B
Correct answer: Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A
Both are true and the reason is the statistical mechanism. Extremes are defined by a threshold far out in the tail of the distribution, where the density is low and falling steeply. Shifting the whole distribution slightly warmer therefore moves a disproportionate amount of probability past that threshold, so the frequency of exceedance rises far faster than the mean does - as the next item quantifies.
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