Discussion
Arrange the steps of a detection and attribution study in order.
1. detect a change beyond that variability
2. assemble the observational record
3. attribute it by matching the pattern to modelled forcings
4. estimate the natural variability from long records and models
Answer: B
Each step depends on the one before, and attribution cannot precede detection. Skipping the variability estimate is what makes a claimed trend unconvincing. Each step rests on the last. Reversing any pair makes the argument invalid.
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