Discussion
State whether the following is true or false.
A single extreme event can now be attributed to climate change with a quantified change in its probability.
Answer: C
Correct answer: True
Extreme event attribution compares the probability of the observed event in the world as it is with its probability in a counterfactual world without anthropogenic forcing, using large ensembles of model simulations. The result is a change in likelihood - a heatwave made a certain number of times more probable - rather than a yes or no verdict, and the confidence varies greatly by event type, being high for heat and much lower for events driven by small-scale convection.
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