Discussion
Assertion (A): Near term climate projections are dominated by internal variability rather than by scenario choice.
Reason (R): Emissions under different scenarios have not yet diverged much in the first decade or two.
Answer: A
Both are true and the reason gives the cause, and it means the near term is genuinely uncertain in a way that better models cannot remedy. Effort spent refining the models buys most where the scenario and the response dominate instead.
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