Discussion
Consider the following statements about model ensembles.
1. An initial condition ensemble samples internal variability.
2. A multi-model ensemble samples structural uncertainty.
3. The ensemble mean is always the most likely outcome.
Answer: C
The first two are correct and describe two distinct kinds of ensemble. The third overstates it, since the models are not independent and the mean may fall in a region no individual model supports. The models are not independent of one another.
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