Discussion
Consider the following statements about evaluating seeding trials.
1. The seeding decision must be randomised in advance.
2. A target and control area design helps reduce variance.
3. A single well documented case can establish an effect.
Answer: A
The first two are correct and are standard trial design. The third is precisely the fallacy that has sustained unfounded claims, since a single cloud provides no counterfactual whatever. One case can never establish a causal effect.
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