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Discussion

Climate adaptation in coastal management normally proceeds by

  • A.deferring all decisions until the projections become certain
  • B.planning for a range of scenarios rather than a single forecast
  • C.assuming that present conditions will continue unchanged
  • D.designing immediately for the most extreme projection available

Answer: B

Scenario planning keeps options open under genuine uncertainty. Adaptive pathways allow a decision to be revisited as the evidence develops. Scenarios keep the options genuinely open. A single forecast would be false precision.

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