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Cost estimating relationships derived from historical data are least reliable when applied to

  • A.A conventional aircraft slightly larger than those in the database
  • B.A derivative of an existing type
  • C.A re-engined variant
  • D.A configuration unlike anything in the database

Answer: D

Correct answer: A configuration unlike anything in the database

Parametric cost relations are regressions fitted to historical programmes, so they interpolate within the experience they were built on and extrapolate beyond it only on faith. A configuration unlike anything in the database - a novel layout, an unfamiliar material system, an unprecedented propulsion arrangement - lies outside that experience entirely.

The other three are all near the data. A slightly larger conventional aircraft, a derivative and a re-engined variant are exactly the cases such models handle well, which is why derivative programmes carry so much less cost risk than clean sheets.

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