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Which historical model produced the first numerical weather forecast?

  • A.A quasi-geostrophic two-level model
  • B.A statistical model based on the analogue method of matching present conditions to past ones
  • C.The barotropic vorticity equation model
  • D.A primitive equation model integrated on a hemispheric grid with several levels in the vertical

Answer: C

Charney, Fjortoft and von Neumann integrated the barotropic vorticity equation on the ENIAC in 1950, producing a twenty four hour forecast in about twenty four hours of computation. The single equation was chosen precisely because it filters gravity waves, which had wrecked Richardson's earlier attempt with the primitive equations. Multi-level primitive equation models came a decade later as computing power grew.

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