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Which weakness of certainty factors led to their decline?

  • A.They cannot represent a conclusion in which the system has no confidence whatsoever at all
  • B.They are expensive to compute
  • C.They require the knowledge engineer to supply a prior probability for every hypothesis
  • D.Their combination rule assumes independence

Answer: D

The combination formulae treat every piece of evidence as independent, so correlated findings are double counted and confidence is overstated. Heckerman's analysis showed certainty factors are a probabilistic calculus only under assumptions the domains violate. They represent absence of confidence perfectly well, they are cheap, and they were adopted precisely to avoid eliciting priors. Bayesian networks answered the same need soundly. The quantity that varies and the quantity that does not are worth naming before any substitution is attempted.

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