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Which practical lead time does that stratospheric signal provide?

  • A.Two to six weeks
  • B.Two to six days, which is the range over which conventional deterministic forecasting already performs well
  • C.Two to six months
  • D.Two to six years, matching the timescale on which the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle itself recurs

Answer: A

The surface influence of a stratospheric event persists for several weeks, filling exactly the gap between the limit of deterministic weather forecasting and the beginning of seasonal predictability. That subseasonal range had long been described as a desert of predictability. The stratosphere is one of the few identified sources of skill within it, alongside the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

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