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What characterised the early optimism of the field?

  • A.Confident predictions that general intelligence was a decade away
  • B.A refusal to make any predictions at all about future capability
  • C.A focus on statistical learning from very large data sets
  • D.An emphasis on formal verification of every program written

Answer: A

Founders predicted within a few years machines that would translate languages, prove theorems and match human intelligence generally, and those predictions were repeatedly unfulfilled. The gap between early successes on toy problems and the difficulty of real ones was underestimated. Statistical learning and formal verification came later and from other traditions. Early success on simplified cases misleading a field about the difficulty of the general case is a pattern worth recognising.

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