Discussion
Why is predicting progress in artificial intelligence difficult?
Answer: D
The field has a long record of expecting general intelligence within a decade and of underestimating specific advances that arrived suddenly, so confident forecasts in either direction have a poor track record. Publication is extensive, measures exist though they are imperfect, and hardware growth has been comparatively predictable. A domain whose history contains both overoptimism and surprise justifies caution about any confident timeline, including a pessimistic one.
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