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Let X a \(p\)-component random vector is partitioned into \(X^{(1)}\) and \(X^{(2)}\) where \(X^{(1)}\) has \(q\)-components and \(X^{(2)}\) has \((p - q)\) components and \(X \sim N_{p}(\mu, \Sigma)\). If \(\mu\) and \(\Sigma\) are also partitioned as of X, then the variance covariance matrix of the conditional distribution of \(X^{(1)}\) given \(X^{(2)}\) is :

  • A.\(\Sigma_{11} + \Sigma_{12}\Sigma_{22}^{-1}\Sigma_{21}\)
  • B.\(\Sigma_{11} - \Sigma_{12}\Sigma_{22}^{-1}\Sigma_{21}\)
  • C.\(\Sigma_{22} + \Sigma_{21}\Sigma_{11}^{-1}\Sigma_{12}\)
  • D.\(\Sigma_{22} - \Sigma_{21}\Sigma_{11}^{-1}\Sigma_{12}\)

Answer: B

The conditional covariance matrix is \(\Sigma_{11} - \Sigma_{12}\Sigma_{22}^{-1}\Sigma_{21}\).

For a partitioned multivariate normal, the conditional distribution of \(X^{(1)}\) given \(X^{(2)} = x^{(2)}\) is normal with mean \(\mu^{(1)} + \Sigma_{12}\Sigma_{22}^{-1}(x^{(2)} - \mu^{(2)})\) and covariance \(\Sigma_{11} - \Sigma_{12}\Sigma_{22}^{-1}\Sigma_{21}\), the Schur complement of \(\Sigma_{22}\).

Conditioning can only reduce variability, so the correction is subtracted, ruling out the two options with a plus sign. The options built from \(\Sigma_{22}\) give the conditional covariance of \(X^{(2)}\) given \(X^{(1)}\), the other way round.

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