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Discussion

Period birth rate and cohort birth rate may exhibit large differences under which of the following conditions ?

  • A.When most couples plan their fertility.
  • B.When the mean age of marriage is increasing.
  • C.When the mean age at marriage is decreasing.
  • D.None of the above.

Answer: C

The key is that period and cohort birth rates may differ greatly when the mean age at marriage is decreasing. When women marry earlier, births that would have come later in the calendar are brought forward, which pushes the period rate up for the time being while the completed cohort fertility is unchanged.

When couples plan their fertility steadily, the timing is stable and the two measures stay close. An increase in the mean age at marriage also changes the timing, but the key accepts only the falling age, and 'None of the above' is therefore wrong.

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