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If \(T_{1}\) is an unbiased estimator of \(\theta\) and T is a minimal sufficient statistic for \(\theta\), then which of the following statements is NOT true ? Suppose \(T^{*} = E[T_{1} \mid T]\).

  • A.\(\mathrm{Var}(T^{*}) \le \mathrm{Var}(U)\) for every unbiased estimator U of \(\theta\) and T a complete sufficient statistic
  • B.\(T^{*}\) represents the procedure of Rao-Blackwellisation
  • C.\(\mathrm{Var}(T^{*}) \le \mathrm{Var}(U)\), for every unbiased estimator U of \(\theta\)
  • D.\(\mathrm{Var}(T^{*}) \le \mathrm{Var}(T_{1})\)

Answer: C

The statement that is NOT true is \(\mathrm{Var}(T^{*}) \le \mathrm{Var}(U)\) for every unbiased estimator U of \(\theta\) (without completeness).

Rao-Blackwellisation, \(T^{*} = E[T_{1} \mid T]\), always improves on the estimator it starts from: \(T^{*}\) is unbiased and \(\mathrm{Var}(T^{*}) \le \mathrm{Var}(T_{1})\). That makes options B and D true.

Beating every unbiased estimator needs more. By the Lehmann-Scheffe theorem, if T is complete as well as sufficient, \(T^{*}\) is the unique UMVUE, which is option A. Minimal sufficiency alone does not give completeness, and then different unbiased starting points can lead to different conditional expectations, so option C can fail.

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