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The main reason precipitation is hard to forecast quantitatively is that

  • A.radar cannot detect precipitation of any kind at all
  • B.it depends on microphysics operating below the model grid scale
  • C.the total water held in the atmosphere is entirely unknown
  • D.precipitation obeys no physical laws that can be written

Answer: B

Models must parameterise the processes that turn cloud water into rain. Small differences in that parameterisation produce large differences in the forecast rainfall field. Rainfall remains the least skilful common forecast field.

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