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Five people stand at the vertices of a pentagon, throwing frisbees to each other. They have two frisbees, initially at adjacent vertices as shown in the figure. In each time interval, each frisbee is thrown either to the left or to the right (along an edge of the pentagon) with equal probability. This process continues until one person is the target of two frisbees simultaneously, then game ends.

(Note : All throws are independent of past history)

A regular pentagon with a person at each vertex; the two frisbees are at the two ends of the bottom edge, with arrows showing the throws

Find the mean and variance of the number of pairs of throws.

  • A.12 and 100
  • B.6 and 50
  • C.24 and 200
  • D.18 and 80

Answer: A

The mean is 12 pairs of throws and the variance is 100, so the answer is 12 and 100.

Track the distance between the frisbees around the pentagon: 1 (adjacent) or 2, with 0 ending the game. Each frisbee moves one step left or right, so the gap changes by -2, 0 or +2 with probabilities 1/4, 1/2, 1/4. From distance 1 the gap stays at 1 with probability 3/4 and becomes 2 with probability 1/4; from distance 2 it ends with probability 1/4, becomes 1 with probability 1/4 and stays at 2 with probability 1/2.

Let \(E_{1}\), \(E_{2}\) be the expected numbers of throws from each distance:

\[ \begin{aligned} E_{1} &= 1 + \tfrac{3}{4}E_{1} + \tfrac{1}{4}E_{2} \\ E_{2} &= 1 + \tfrac{1}{4}E_{1} + \tfrac{1}{2}E_{2} \end{aligned} \]

\[ \begin{aligned} E_{1} &= 4 + E_{2},\quad E_{2} = 2 + \tfrac{1}{2}E_{1} \\ E_{1} &= 12,\quad E_{2} = 8 \end{aligned} \]

For the variance, the fundamental matrix of the absorbing chain is \(N = \begin{pmatrix} 8 & 4 \\ 4 & 4 \end{pmatrix}\), and the variance of the absorption time from distance 1 is the first entry of \((2N - I)t - t^{2}\) with \(t = (12, 8)\):

\[ 15(12) + 8(8) - 12^{2} = 244 - 144 = 100 \]

The other pairs do not satisfy these equations; 6 and 50 or 24 and 200 come from halving or doubling both values.

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