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A six sided unbiased die with four green faces and two red faces is rolled seven times. Which of the following combinations is the most likely outcome of the experiment?

  • A.Three green faces and four red faces.
  • B.Four green faces and three red faces.
  • C.Five green faces and two red faces.
  • D.Six green faces and one red face.

Answer: C

The most likely outcome is Five green faces and two red faces.

Each roll shows green with probability 2/3 and red with probability 1/3, so the number of greens in 7 rolls is binomial. The chance of \(k\) greens is proportional to \(\binom{7}{k} 2^{k}\):

greens3456
\(\binom{7}{k} 2^{k}\)280560672448

Five greens gives the largest value. The usual shortcut is that the most likely count of a binomial is the whole-number part of \((n + 1)p = 8 \times \frac{2}{3} = 5.33\), which is 5. Six greens is close but has fewer arrangements, and three or four greens underweight the more likely colour.

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