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Bayes' rule states \( P(H|E) = P(E|H)P(H)/P(E) \). What does the denominator do?

  • A.Normalises so the posterior probabilities sum to one
  • B.Corrects for the reliability of the evidence gathered
  • C.Removes the influence of the prior from the calculation
  • D.Accounts for hypotheses that have not been considered

Answer: A

The denominator is the total probability of the evidence, summed over every hypothesis, and serves only to make the posteriors sum to one. When comparing hypotheses it may be omitted, since it is the same for all of them, which is why the rule is often written as a proportionality. Reliability, prior removal and unconsidered hypotheses are different concerns. Recognising a term as a normalising constant tells you at once when it can be ignored.

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