Discussion
What is the base rate fallacy?
Answer: C
The fallacy reports the likelihood as though it were the posterior, so a ninety nine per cent accurate test for a rare condition is taken to mean a positive result is ninety nine per cent reliable. The prior is what makes the true figure so much lower. The other options describe different errors about base rates. An error that arises from conflating two conditional probabilities pointing in opposite directions is best cured by writing both down explicitly.
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