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What does it mean for two variables to be independent?

  • A.The two variables never take the same value at once
  • B.The two variables have the same probability distribution
  • C.Neither variable causes the other to take its value
  • D.Knowing one tells you nothing about the other

Answer: D

Independence means the conditional probability equals the unconditional one, so the joint factorises into the product of the marginals. It is a strong condition that rarely holds between interesting variables. Mutual exclusion, identical distributions and absence of causation are different notions, the last being related but distinct. Independence is what would make a joint distribution small, and its rarity is why the weaker conditional form matters so much.

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