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Discussion

What is explaining away?

  • A.Explaining an observation by the most probable cause available
  • B.Discarding a hypothesis that the evidence has ruled out entirely
  • C.Learning one cause reduces belief in another cause of the same effect
  • D.Removing a variable from the network once it has been observed

Answer: C

If the alarm sounds, an earthquake and a burglary are both plausible, but learning of an earthquake makes a burglary less likely although the two are independent a priori. It is the characteristic pattern of reasoning that Bayesian networks capture and rule based systems do not. The other options describe different operations. A qualitative pattern of inference that people perform naturally, and that follows from the mathematics rather than being programmed, is strong evidence the formalism is the right one. Checking the units of each quantity catches a wrong formula before the arithmetic begins.

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