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What does filtering compute in a temporal probabilistic model?

  • A.The distribution over a future state given the observations
  • B.The distribution over the current state given all observations so far
  • C.The most likely sequence of states given the observations
  • D.The distribution over a past state given later observations

Answer: B

Filtering maintains a belief over the present state, updating it as each observation arrives, and is what a tracking system does continuously. Smoothing looks backwards, prediction looks forwards, and the most likely sequence is the different problem the Viterbi algorithm solves. Naming the four temporal inference tasks separately matters because each has its own algorithm and its own cost.

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