Discussion
What is a certainty factor in an early expert system?
Answer: D
Certainty factors attached ad hoc numbers to rules and combined them by formulas chosen for convenience rather than derived from any axioms. They worked adequately in small systems and behaved oddly as systems grew, which is what drove the field towards probability. They are not probabilities, and frequency and authorship are different notions. A scheme adopted because it seemed reasonable, and abandoned when its behaviour could not be justified, is instructive about why foundations matter.
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