Discussion
Why did certainty factors give way to probability?
Answer: A
The combination formulas implicitly assumed independences that the rule base did not satisfy, so conclusions could be badly wrong in ways nobody could predict or diagnose. Probability makes those assumptions explicit and derives its rules from axioms about consistent belief. Speed, expressiveness and elicitation burden are not the reason. Replacing a scheme that works by luck with one that works by construction is worth doing even when the second demands more of the modeller.
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