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What is the frequentist interpretation of probability?

  • A.The proportion of models in which a proposition is true
  • B.A measure of how strongly the evidence supports a hypothesis
  • C.The long run relative frequency of an event in repeated trials
  • D.A degree of belief held by a rational agent given evidence

Answer: C

The frequentist reading defines probability by what happens in a long sequence of similar trials, which makes it hard to speak of the probability of a unique event. The Bayesian reading treats probability as belief and has no such difficulty. Model proportions and evidential support are related notions from other traditions. Knowing which interpretation is in play matters when a probability is attached to something that will happen only once.

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