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What do the Dutch book arguments establish?

  • A.Beliefs violating the probability axioms permit guaranteed losses
  • B.Probability is the only consistent measure of frequency
  • C.Bayesian updating converges to the truth given enough evidence
  • D.Rational agents must assign a prior to every proposition

Answer: A

If an agent's degrees of belief violate the axioms, a set of bets can be constructed that it accepts and that loses money whatever happens. That is an argument for the axioms from consistency rather than from frequency. Convergence and prior assignment are separate results. An argument showing that violating a rule leads to a demonstrable loss, rather than merely to inelegance, is unusually persuasive.

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