Discussion
Consider the following pairings in probabilistic reasoning.
Prior - belief before the evidence
Likelihood - probability of evidence given hypothesis
Posterior - belief after conditioning
Base rate fallacy - overweighting the prior probability
How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched?
Answer: D
The first three are correct. The base rate fallacy consists in ignoring the prior rather than overweighting it, so a positive test for a rare condition is read as though the test's accuracy were the answer. Getting the direction of the error right matters, since the remedy is to attend to the base rate rather than to discount it.
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