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What is the chain rule for probability?

  • A.A chain of variables must be conditioned in sequence
  • B.The probability of a chain of events is their product
  • C.Conditional probabilities may be chained transitively
  • D.A joint equals a product of conditionals in any chosen order

Answer: D

The rule writes a joint as a product of conditionals, each variable given those before it in an arbitrary ordering, and choosing an ordering in which each variable depends on few predecessors gives a Bayesian network. Event chains, sequential conditioning and transitivity are different notions. That the factorisation is always available, and that structure comes from choosing a good order, is the derivation of the network representation in one step.

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