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Which quantity does the normalising constant in Bayes' rule represent?

  • A.The total probability of the evidence
  • B.The prior probability assigned to the hypothesis under consideration
  • C.The largest likelihood among all of the competing hypotheses
  • D.The number of hypotheses over which the belief must be spread

Answer: A

The denominator is the probability of the evidence summed over every hypothesis, and it merely rescales so the posteriors sum to one. Because it is common to all hypotheses it can be ignored when only the ranking matters, which is why the proportional form of the rule is so often used. Priors, maximum likelihoods and hypothesis counts are different quantities. Treating the constant as bookkeeping rather than as content removes most of the algebra from the rule and leaves the idea visible.

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