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Discussion

Which reasoning pattern does probability handle that logic handles badly?

  • A.Conclusions that depend on the order the premises are presented
  • B.Conclusions that later evidence can retract
  • C.Conclusions that follow from a very large number of premises
  • D.Conclusions about individuals drawn from statements about classes

Answer: B

Probabilistic belief rises and falls with evidence, so a conclusion drawn now can be withdrawn later without any special machinery, whereas monotonic logic needs default rules and truth maintenance to imitate it. Large premise sets, quantification and premise ordering are handled by logic perfectly well. This non-monotonic behaviour, with explaining away as its sharpest example, is the historical reason probability displaced its rivals here.

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