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Suppose X is a real random variable on a probability space \((\Omega, A, P)\) and \(\{A_{n}, n \ge 1\}\) is a sequence of sets in A such that :

\[ A_{n} \to \phi \text{ as } n \to \infty \]

  • A.\(XI_{A_{n}} \to 0\) in probability
  • B.\(XI_{A_{n}} \to X\) in probability
  • C.\(XI_{A_{n}} \to 1\) in probability
  • D.\(XI_{A_{n}} \to X\) in law

Answer: A

The conclusion is \(XI_{A_{n}} \to 0\) in probability.

\(A_{n} \to \varnothing\) means each \(\omega\) lies in only finitely many \(A_{n}\), so \(I_{A_{n}}(\omega) \to 0\) for every \(\omega\) and \(X I_{A_{n}} \to 0\) pointwise, hence almost surely. Almost sure convergence implies convergence in probability. Directly: for \(\varepsilon \gt 0\), \(P(|XI_{A_{n}}| \gt \varepsilon) \le P(A_{n}) \to 0\) by continuity of probability.

The limit is 0, not X or 1, so options B and C fail unless X itself is 0. Convergence in law to X (option D) would need X to have the same law as the constant 0.

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