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Suppose \(\{X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{n}\}\) is a random sample Poisson distribution with mean \(\theta\). Then the uniformly most powerful test for testing \(H_{0} : \theta = 1\) against \(H_{1} : \theta \gt 1\) :

  • A.rejects \(H_{0}\) if \(\bar{X} \lt c_{1}\) or \(\bar{X} \gt c_{2}\) for some \(c_{1}, c_{2}\)
  • B.rejects \(H_{0}\) if \(\bar{X} \lt c\) for some \(c\)
  • C.rejects \(H_{0}\) if \(\bar{X} \gt c\) for some \(c\)
  • D.rejects \(H_{0}\) if \(c_{1} \lt \bar{X} \lt c_{2}\) for some \(c_{1}, c_{2}\)

Answer: C

The UMP test rejects \(H_{0}\) if \(\bar{X} \gt c\).

The Poisson family has a monotone likelihood ratio in \(\sum X_{i}\) (equivalently \(\bar{X}\)): for \(\theta_{1} \gt \theta_{0}\),

\[ \begin{aligned} &\frac{L(\theta_{1})}{L(\theta_{0})} \\ &= e^{-n(\theta_{1} - \theta_{0})}\left(\frac{\theta_{1}}{\theta_{0}}\right)^{\sum x_{i}} \end{aligned} \]

increases with \(\sum x_{i}\). By the Neyman-Pearson lemma and the Karlin-Rubin theorem, the UMP test of \(\theta = 1\) against \(\theta \gt 1\) rejects for large \(\bar{X}\) (with randomisation if needed, since the distribution is discrete).

Rejecting for small \(\bar{X}\) suits \(\theta \lt 1\), and two-sided or interval regions are not UMP for a one-sided alternative.

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