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Which caution applies to a forecast sounding?

  • A.It cannot be used for parcel analysis
  • B.It is available only at the synoptic hours at which the model has been initialised from the observations
  • C.It inherits any error in the model's representation of the boundary layer
  • D.It is always more accurate than an observed sounding because it represents a grid box average rather than a point

Answer: C

Model soundings often show a boundary layer that is too deep or too dry, and convective parameterisation can remove instability that the real atmosphere would retain. Comparing a forecast sounding with a nearby observation is the standard check. Forecast soundings are available at every output time and can be analysed exactly as observed ones are.

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